Foley is up by six — or he and Malloy are tied

Another day, another poll — and a dramatically different result.

YouGov, an internet polling company among those used this year by the New York Times and CBS, reported Thursday that its latest survey of 1,808 voters found Democratic Gov. Dannel P. Malloy and Republican Tom Foley locked in a dead heat, 37 percent to 37 percent. When “leaners” are added, Malloy leads, 42 percent to 41 percent.

A Quinnipiac University telephone poll of likely voters released Wednesday found Foley with a six-point lead, 46 percent to 40 percent, with petitioning candidate Joe Visconti supported by seven percent.

On July 28, YouGov had Foley up by nine points.

YouGov uses online survey panels, a technique long used by market researchers interested in assessing consumer preferences. They are assembled, taking care to reflect the demographics of a given survey area.

Vox, Quinnipiac University and other traditional pollsters use a probability sample in which everyone has an equal chance of being selected for an interview through random-digit dialing of cellular phones and land lines. YouGov bases its Internet surveys on a huge, self-selected population.

The announcement in July that the New York Times and CBS News were making YouGov’s research part of their polling mix was big news in the world of political polling.

“This is a very big deal in the survey world,” wrote Scott Keeter, the Pew Research Center’s director of survey research. “Until now, no major news organization has put its brand on using surveys based on non-probability methods.”

To learn more about the pros and cons of the YouGov approach, read Keeter’s comprehensive Q&A.

Compare the Polls
Dannel P. Malloy vs. Tom Foley
Poll Date Malloy Foley Difference
YouGov 11-Sep-14 37 37 tie
Quinnipiac 10-Sep-14 40 46 Foley + 6
Rasmussen 21-Aug-14 38 45 Foley +7
Vox 31-Jul-14 35 34 Malloy +1
YouGov 28-Jul-14 33 42 Foley +9
Quinnipiac 9-May-14 43 43 tie
Quinnipiac 4-Mar-14 42 42 tie
Quinnipiac 19-Jun-13 40 43 Foley +3

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