For years, Connecticut lawmakers have debated a policy that would have towns plan and zone for a set number of units based on regional housing needs, and a new report shows exactly how many units each town would have to plan for under the policy.
In 2023, the legislature passed a law that mandated the “fair share” study, and the state contracted with consulting firm ECONorthwest. The firm released town-specific numbers earlier this month.
The need for new housing across Connecticut ranges from 120,000 to 380,000 housing units, and ECONorthwest found that the state has the most constrained housing market in the nation.
The study looks at three different methods of allocating housing needs from regions to municipalities in Connecticut.
In the “baseline” approach, there is an estimated need of 133,136 units. For the two other approaches, A and B, there is an estimated need of 120,000 units, according to the Draft Fair Share Allocation Results. The three studies take different variables into consideration to allocate housing.
Under a bill working its way through the legislature this year, towns’ affordable housing plans would have to describe how they would plan and zone for the number of units assigned by the state.
It’s not yet clear which of the three methodologies the proposed law would require the legislature to use to decide how many units towns would have to plan and zone for.
Supporters say the legislation would require towns that have been reluctant to allow affordable housing to take action — and that it would encourage more housing density, which would help reduce dependence on cars.
The proposal has been controversial. Local officials and groups that represent towns say it would be burdensome on localities, reduce local control and doesn’t take into account the needs of individual municipalities.
The baseline approach excludes high-poverty towns from having to plan for more housing units and caps any town’s allocation at 20% of the existing number of units. It excludes high-poverty cities like Hartford, Waterbury, New Haven, Bridgeport and Windham from having to zone for any additional affordable housing units and sets their allocation to zero.
The approach aims to keep from concentrating poverty. Erin Boggs, executive director of the Open Communities Alliance, said in an interview that these towns also already have the zoning in place to allow more housing to be built.
The baseline approach also uses four equally weighted variables: property value share, income disparity, poverty rate and multifamily housing share. It also focuses on housing that’s set aside for households earning less than 80% of the area median income. Under the baseline plan, the total units allocated (117,234) is under the estimated need (133,136) because of the 20% cap.
Approach A is the same as the baseline approach but includes all towns and removes the cap. Approach B allocates based on housing affordability gap for low-income renters, recent housing production and access to jobs.
Cities like Hartford, Waterbury and Stratford would have to zone for a big jump in units under Approach B. Wealthier suburbs like Greenwich, Wilton and Westport also would have to plan for a larger number of units under Approaches A and B.
Towns like Bridgewater and Sherman see huge percentage increases (5x or more) after Approach A’s removal of the 20% cap.
The proposal in the legislature would allow towns to appeal their assigned numbers, explain to the state why they can’t accommodate that number of units of housing and propose a number they think is achievable.