This story is part of CT Mirror Explains, an ongoing effort to distill our wide-ranging reporting into a "what you need to know" format and provide practical information to our readers.

Connecticut Democrats have spent the last several months crisscrossing the state to warn residents about potentially devastating impacts of looming federal cuts to Medicaid. 

Medicaid is the country’s biggest health plan, covering more than 70 million Americans. Known as HUSKY in Connecticut, Medicaid covers roughly 1 million people in the state, according to the Department of Social Services, which equals just about 25% of the population.

States depend heavily on the federal government to pay for the program. The state’s Office of Policy and Management projects Connecticut will spend a total of $11.6 billion on Medicaid this fiscal year. The federal government contributed roughly $6.9 billion, or 59%, of that funding.

Democrats across the country are sounding the alarm that the Trump administration’s budget priorities will threaten the federal funding that’s critical to Medicaid. Both chambers of the U.S. Congress recently passed a measure crafted by Republicans that instructed the House Energy and Commerce Committee to cut $880 billion in spending.

The resolution doesn’t direct the committee to cut Medicaid specifically, and President Donald J. Trump has insisted that his administration will not cut the program. But, based on the spending that the committee handles, Medicaid would likely need to be part of the equation, which could lead to reductions in access for enrollees. 

Here’s what you need to know.

What will the cuts mean for providers and patients?

Medicaid covers all types of services for its enrollees, including medical and behavioral health services, substance abuse treatment, as well as in-home and nursing home care for seniors and people with disabilities. It’s unlikely that we’ll know the full details of how Medicaid cuts will play out until the summer, when Congress is expected to vote on the final budget for fiscal year 2026. 

“There’s all kinds of ideas swirling around about how they would implement [cuts]. They’re all bad,” U.S. Rep. Joe Courtney, D-2nd District, said during a press conference in Hartford earlier this month.

Providers are already bracing for the changes, saying they may have to pare back services if cuts go through.

Glenn Connan, chief financial officer at Midwestern Connecticut Council on Alcoholism, a substance abuse treatment provider in Danbury, said he worries his organization would have to shutter some of its clinics, despite surging demand for services.

“Any further cuts to Medicaid [and] we’re gonna have to start closing some of those seven outpatient clinics and just having maybe three,” Connan told elected officials during an event earlier this month in Danbury focused on potential Medicaid cuts. “That’s gonna hurt the people in those communities.”

Jeffrey Shenberger, division head of neonatology at Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, said Medicaid cuts would impact some of his most vulnerable patients — babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. 

“Cuts would lead to fewer resources within the acute care process within the NICU. And it would impact all families and all children. It’s regardless of whether they’re private pay, self-pay or paid through Medicaid,” Shenberger told attendees during an April press conference at Connecticut Children’s in Hartford.

Medicaid covers roughly 40% of births in Connecticut, according to health policy organization KFF.

How would Medicaid cuts impact state finances?

Gov. Ned Lamont’s administration is modeling out what the cuts to Medicaid would mean for the state budget. While it’s unclear how the federal government would pare back spending, the impacts of all cuts Congress is considering would put enormous stress on the state’s finances. 

Right now, the federal government covers at least 50% of all the state’s Medicaid costs. But, Congress may decide to, instead, offer a fixed amount per Medicaid enrollee, regardless of how many or which types of services they use. Under this scenario, Connecticut would lose $1.35 billion over the next seven years, or an average of $193 million per year, according to the Department of Social Services.

The feds may also lower or abandon the current guarantee that Washington reimburses at least 50% of all states’ Medicaid costs. In that case, Connecticut stands to lose up to a staggering $3.5 billion in federal reimbursements, DSS estimates. The funding represents just over half of the projected federal reimbursements Connecticut received this fiscal year.

Officials have said it’s too early to focus on how the state might trim Medicaid under some nightmare scenario. But, there are benefits that Connecticut offers that aren’t required for states to participate in Medicaid. These include dental and pharmaceutical coverage, and home care for elderly patients.

Sen. Cathy Osten, D-Sprague, who co-chairs the General Assembly’s Appropriations Committee, told The Connecticut Mirror she isn’t ready to accept any cutbacks.

“We’re not pre-supposing …  in a program as important as Medicaid,” Osten said. “We’re not going to start off looking at cuts to programs that keep people alive — and that’s what Medicaid does.”

CT Mirror reporter Keith M. Phaneuf contributed to this story.