We all know what a hard coup is. That is where a political leader with an autocratic craving uses the military to violently overthrow a population with brute force and subjugate them to the extreme views of the dictator. A soft coup is the preferred method of the leaders of Turkey, Hungary and others.
The method is well planned, detailed and strategic. Your main opponents are the legislature, judiciary and the press. If you’re a charismatic populist the legislature has already bowed to your will due to multiple fear factors – loss of job, personal safety and possible imprisonment.
We are in the first or second stage of a soft coup in the U.S. There is no need to wait and see if we’re in a constitutional crisis or if we’ve “crossed the Rubicon.” This happened the minute the election was over. This coup was in the planning stages for four years. They even published their battle plans.
The first step in fighting this is to acknowledge that we’re already in an existential crisis. You can’t adapt a strategy until you realize how desperate the situation already is. You also can’t just fight with anger, emotions and protest. You have to carefully analyze the situation, determine strengths and weaknesses, what boundaries contains the administration and how to maximize the defense of democracy and our constitution.
If you think capitulation to a despot is a workable response you could ask any of the oligarchs that have tried to appease Putin, if they weren’t dead or terrified. It is risky fighting at the current stage of a soft coup but nearly impossible once they consolidate power.
Donald Trump’s administration does have some weaknesses and constraints that will constrain their progress. There isn’t a uniformity of purpose, there are many conflicting goals in this gang. There is a time constraint bound by when the midterm congressional races start.
In his current self-destructive mode Trump is making most people very angry and all but his loyalist supporters are regretting their vote. Then there is his current mental state. He can be clinically described as a narcissist and is subject to the distortions that malady imposes.
He’s like that guy at a high school reunion who has waited half his life to get even with everyone who ever slighted him. He is wasting precious time doing just that rather than sticking to a carefully orchestrated plan. He is also not thinking rationally, nor does he have any meaningful plan for improving any aspect of governance in our country. He is just ranting about his pet grievances and seems to have a short memory and attention span.
Financially he has retreated when advised that he could start another great depression and he does pay attention to poll numbers. The military is hopefully the strongest bulwark against a hard coup. Although individuals must have individual ideologies and opinions, the discipline of the military is an individual sacrifice for the greater good. Service members risk their lives to defend our democracy at home or at foreign nations they might not have even have heard of. It’s hard to imagine the US military participating in a coup and using brutal force against its own citizens.
Unfortunately, there are many strong points to this ongoing soft coup. Foremost is Trump’s skill in the media. People seemed swayed simply by his swagger and style and tend to ignore what he’s actually saying. Another is an extremely conservative Supreme Court who seems confused about what branch of government they occupy. Re-writing the Constitution, voiding hard-fought laws such as the Civil rights Act and Voting Rights Act because they deemed them no longer necessary and expanding executive power to a dangerous degree is not a mandate intended for the highest court in the land.
Trump has managed to bully the entire Republican Party into submission. There didn’t seem to be a lot of bravery or forethought to overcome to start with. Congress is the one group that actually can command executive authority and stop the slaughter of our institutions and freedom. You would think that there would be four senators and four members of Congress that would be outraged enough on their own to sacrifice their careers for the good of their country and switch parties without additional encouragement.
But apparently, they need to be confronted with the reality if the direction of the country continues into chaos that they will be voted out of office anyway. So, my suggestion is that everyone makes that abundantly clear in every town hall, every protest and every confrontation possible. You won’t get another chance. Ask the Russians how the resistance is going.
Walter Meltzer lives in New Milford.