So what does the hurricane forecast mean?
It mean it is still a crapshoot how the season will turn out. The forecast does not predict where the storms might go or whether they’ll even hit land. And if they hit land, which land.
At the risk of taking people off their guard, the Hurricane Center likes to point to 1992. It was predicted to be a minimal hurricane season, and indeed there were only seven tropical storms and four hurricanes, only one of which even hit land.
But it was one of the most devastating hurricane years ever. That one was the Category 5 Andrew, the storm that took 15 lives when it struck south Florida and took many more in its aftermath.
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