With just over five weeks remaining until Election Day, national analysts monitoring election data say the odds of winning are slim for Republicans at the top of the ticket in Connecticut.
In the governor’s race, FiveThirtyEight says Gov. Ned Lamont is “very likely” to beat Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski. The polling analysis website simulated the election 40,000 times and found that Lamont won 98 times in a sample of 100 simulations.
And Sen. Richard Blumenthal’s chances of beating Republican challenger Leora Levy are even higher, FiveThirtyEight found: Its model currently finds Levy’s chance of winning is less than one in 100.
These projections are especially bad news for Levy, the upset winner of the Republican primary for Senate after her endorsement by former President Donald Trump. Levy’s fundraising has been weak, and trailing with one month to go is no lure for donors, writes CT Mirror Capitol Bureau Chief Mark Pazniokas.
But the congressional races are less cut-and-dried than the statewide contests.
All five seats are held by Democrats. Cook Political Report only rates two races as being competitive — the 2nd District, represented by Rep. Joe Courtney, and the 5th District, represented by Rep. Jahana Hayes.
Currently, Cook projects the 2nd District is “likely Democrat” and the 5th District is “lean Democrat.” And the districts’ ratings have become more competitive: Cook had initially rated Courtney’s district as “solid Democrat” and Hayes’ as “likely Democrat.” The ratings for both races were changed in late May and have remained the same since.
FiveThirtyEight agrees that the 5th District race is the state’s most competitive and even rated the contest as a toss-up earlier this summer. But Hayes has reemerged as a more comfortable favorite in recent weeks. In its current sample of 100 election simulations, Hayes wins 82 times, while Logan wins 18.
The website also simulated Courtney’s race against Mike France in the 2nd District and found that Courtney won 85 of the 100 races, and France won the other 15.
Despite the widening margin, national spending hasn’t slowed in the 5th District. Super PACs and national campaign committees aligned with both parties have continued ramping up their involvement in the contest with new TV ad buys, CT Mirror’s Lisa Hagen reports.