Gov. Ned Lamont leads his Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski by 11 percentage points as another poll released this week shows the Democratic governor with a consistent advantage heading into the final two weeks of the race.
Polling released on Tuesday from WTNH/The Hill/Emerson College found Lamont leading Stefanowski, 52% to 41%. Independent candidate Rob Hotaling only draws about 1% of support from likely voters, while a little more than 5% remain undecided.
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 19-21 with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. This is the second instance where Emerson College has been in the field around the same time as Quinnipiac University and produced similar results showing a wide lead for Lamont. Quinnipiac’s latest survey on Monday showed Lamont up by 15 percentage points.
The Democratic governor also boasts the highest favorability of the candidates: 57% have a favorable view of Lamont, compared to 41% who have an unfavorable view. For Stefanowski, 48% of likely voters hold a favorable opinion, while 43% view him unfavorably.
“Gov. Lamont is very popular,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “He rivals Gov. Charlie Baker in Massachusetts and is one of the most popular governors in the country, which is very interesting considering he had a very tough election against Bob [Stefanowki] stepping out back in 2018, winning by only about three or four points.”
“So, to see his numbers improve in what many consider to be a Republican wave year really speaks to what he’s done in office,” Kimball added.
National polls point to a favorable election year for Republicans as voters still rank the economy and cost of living as their top concerns. With Democrats controlling the White House and both chambers of Congress, the party out of power typically gains seats in midterm elections.
Despite the anticipated headwinds for Nov. 8, Lamont has maintained his polling advantage in his race for a second term. WTNH’s poll from Tuesday found that he gets the largest support from young voters between the ages of 18 and 34 as well as senior voters.
But even with recent public polling showing Lamont with consistent double-digit margins, governor’s races in Connecticut are rarely landslides. In 2018, Lamont won his first term over Stefanowski by a little over 3 percentage points.
The Connecticut Mirror/Connecticut Public Radio federal policy reporter position is made possible, in part, by funding from the Robert and Margaret Patricelli Family Foundation and Engage CT.