Ned Lamont accepting the Democratic nomination in May. mark pazniokas / ctmirror.org
Republican Bob Stefanowski and Democrat Ned Lamont. ctmirror.org

Another day, another poll. Democrat Ned Lamont is up by 9 points in a new poll Friday. Republican Bob Stefanowski had a 2.4-point lead in another Thursday. And there probably is at least one more poll coming before the only one that counts on Tuesday.

In nine public polls by four pollsters, Lamont has topped Stefanowski in all but one. Other than an early poll that did not screen for likely voters, Lamont’s leads have ranged from four percentage points to nine percentage points.

The bottom line, according to both campaigns, is that the race is competitive, with the result resting on who turns out in a season of political cross-currents. Connecticut is one of 11 states with gubernatorial races generally rated as toss-ups.

The latest Connecticut poll is by Gravis Marketing, which bills itself as a nonpartisan research firm. Its survey of 681 likely voters from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1 found Lamont leading Stefanowski, 46 percent to 37 percent, with Oz Griebel at 9 percent.

A Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media poll released Thursday had Stefanowski ahead of Lamont, 40 percent to 37.6 percent. It was the first of any survey to give Stefanowski a lead.

The Gravis poll is an outlier in that it shows Lamont leading Stefanowski in every demographic group, whether by age or gender. In other polls, Lamont has consistently polled higher among women and trailed among men. Gravis found Lamont with leads of 15 points among women and 3 points among men. 

Gravis gave Gov. Dannel P. Malloy an approval rating of 30 percent, with 7 percent strongly approving and 23 percent somewhat approving of his job performance. Malloy had approval ratings of 23 percent in the Quinnipiac poll, 21 percent in an Emerson poll and 14.6 percent in the latest SHU/Hearst survey.

Connecticut Gubernatorial Polls
The Democrat has led in all but one poll in the race to succeed Gov. Dannel P. Malloy.
Poll Date Ned Lamont Bob Stefanowski Oz Griebel Margin of error Advantage
Gravis 10/30 — 11/1 46 37 9 3.8 Lamont +9
SHU/Hearst 10/29 —11/1 38 40 9 4.3 Stefanowski +2
Emerson 10/27—10/29 46 39 10 3.7 Lamont +7
Quinnipiac 10/22–10/28 47 43 7 4 Lamont +4
SHU/Hearst 10/13—10/17 40 36 8.4 4.3 Lamont +4
Quinnipiac 10/3—10/8 47 39 11 5 Lamont +8
SHU/Hearst 9/12—9/17 43 37 n/a 4.3 Lamont +6
Gravis 8/24—8/27 49 40 n/a 4 Lamont +9
Quinnipiac 8/16—8/21 46 33 4 3.9 Lamont +13

Mark is the Capitol Bureau Chief and a co-founder of CT Mirror. He is a frequent contributor to WNPR, a former state politics writer for The Hartford Courant and Journal Inquirer, and contributor for The New York Times.

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