Connecticut gained 1,000 jobs and its unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent in January, its lowest point in 17 years and two-tenths of a point below the current U.S. rate. But the state’s jobs gains for 2018 were revised sharply downward in an annual end-of-year review by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The mix of good and bad employment news was in the monthly jobs report released Friday by the state Department of Labor.
“The January jobs report starts the year on a good note with an increase of 1,000 net new jobs in Connecticut,” said Andy Condon, the DOL’s director of research. “However, the annual benchmark revision process conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics significantly reduced last year’s job growth figures.”
The seasonally adjusted growth from December 2017 to December 2018 was originally reported as 19,900 jobs. The revisions nearly halved those gains, dropping the growth to 10,000 jobs. The state now has 1,697,800 jobs.
“If you look at private sector alone, that number is even more sobering. Our earlier gain of 23,100 jobs was revised down to 9,700,” said Peter Gioia, the economics adviser to the Connecticut Business and Industry Association.
Connecticut’s job growth has been measured in fractions of a percentage point: .6 percent in 2018, 0.1 percent in 2017 and 0.2 percent in 2016.
Before the revisions, Connecticut was deemed to have recovered 93.5 percent of all jobs and 117.7 percent of private-sector jobs lost in the Great Recession of 2008. The revised percentage is 84 percent of all jobs and 103 percent of private-sector jobs.
The monthly jobs reports are based on surveys, while the annual revisions are based on a hard count of jobs reported by companies covered by the unemployment insurance system.
“It is near census data — as accurate as can be, but significantly delayed,” Condon said.
The monthly report comes just two weeks after the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported solid economic growth in Connecticut in the the third quarter of 2018. With growth of 3.3 percent, Connecticut outperformed half of the U.S.
So, how do the experts reconcile the seemingly contradictory jobs numbers — extremely low unemployment, yet anemic jobs growth?
“Reconciling those is a challenge,” Condon said.
One possibility is that the low unemployment is a reflection of demographics. Connecticut’s population is growing slowly and skews older, and the combination of low unemployment and slow jobs growth may reflect that many job-seekers are taking position available due to retirements, not growth.
“We are getting backloaded in terms of age. There are more people with hair like me than somebody else,” said Condon, who is 65.
The last time the Connecticut unemployment rate was as low as 3.8 percent was in April 2002. It peaked at 9.3 percent in November 2010, before the recovery from the 2008 recession began.
Let’s compare this data with information on people leaving the State to reflect the REAL state of affairs, which is probably much worse than we know.
“FIGURES LIE AND LIARS FIGURE” is the quote that comes to mind.
Ask yourself this, “When was rhe last time you saw the CT Dept of Labor” UNDERSTATE job growth statistcs?” These people ae either chonically inept, or ourright liars. You decide!
One possible reason for the disconnect between the unemployment rate and number of new jobs is definitional.
As shown by federal results, when people give up looking for work, that by itself can lower the unemployment rate, which is based on people working and those actively seeking jobs. The labor force participation rate can more accurately reflect the situation.
This is poor reporting. Connecticut RESIDENTS currently employed is a RECORD HIGH of 1,849,800. That is driven by out-of-state employment–which has grown dramatically in the last five years, by more than 90,000 jobs.
Equally important, Connecticut’s economy, measured in real terms (inflation adjusted) has SHRUNK nearly continuously from 2008 through 2017. We had job creation–but they were low quality jobs–while the economy shrank. It is now about the size it was in 2005. BUT the first three quarters of 2018 have seen solid real growth in output; 2018 may be the first year in a decade that CT enjoys real growth.
So the article–and the CTDoL report–are misleading on two counts. First, employment of CT residents is very good, at historical highs, growing more than 47,000 in the past year. Second, the real economy–that is, total output–has been growing at a solid rate. Job creation and economic growth are NOT the same thing. We seem to be growing with little job creation in CT, while CT residents are enjoying strong job growth–by taking jobs out of state.
The challenge for CT is how to drive job creation IN Connecticut while also achieving solid growth in real output.
How many working age people have left the job market–maybe permanently? Fed chair Jerome Powell recently suggested this is skewing the numbers nationwide. He attributed it to a number of causes, but one of them is mind-blowing: the Opioid crisis. Reference: https://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-morning-report/03112019-us-edition