A new Impact CT poll of likely Democratic primary voters shows the race for the gubernatorial nomination tightening significantly since May, but Gov. Ned Lamont still leads his challenger, Josh Elliott, by 21 percentage points, 48% to 27%.
The poll is favorable to Lamont with notable caveats: His support has dipped below 50%, and his lead has shrunk by 17 percentage points since Impact CT’s previous survey released in early June, when he led 58% to 20%.
Time is not an ally for Elliott, whose campaign could not afford significant advertising until getting a $3.75 million public financing grant two weeks ago. The primary is Aug. 11, and early voting begins Monday.
His “No More Ned” series of three new ads are highly critical, each featuring a voter who says they are moving to Elliott and his populist platform of higher taxes on the wealthy after voting for the governor in his previous campaigns.
The new poll suggests a narrow path for the challenger: He needs to close a 21-point gap, and 24% of the Democrats polled still are undecided.
Elliott has been trying to tap into the zeitgeist of a volatile political environment that has propelled liberal challengers to victories in Democratic primaries in other states, most notably in New York congressional contests.
Ruben Felipe, a political strategist who advises Impact CT, said Lamont has a “commanding lead.”
“Still, it’s clear that the Elliott campaign has tapped into something in the electorate, and there’s no doubt that he has closed the gap since our last poll in May,” Felipe said. “The question now is whether there’s enough time left for him to close it entirely.”
The poll’s detailed crosstabs are available online.
So far, the governor’s campaign has largely ignored Elliott, other than lightly suggesting the 41-year-old, five-term state representative from Hamden is more talk than substance.
Impact CT is a group that promotes progressive causes and sometimes supports candidates with independent expenditures. It has not made an endorsement in the Lamont-Elliott contest.
The poll of 859 likely primary voters for Impact CT was conducted by Change Research from July 23 to 26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%. It is consistent with other polling that has found Lamont with relatively steady support, while Elliott has slowly grown his name recognition and base of support.
The University of New Hampshire’s Nutmeg Poll has tracked the race with four polls since November, the first showing Lamont leading, 55% to 7%, and the most recent one in late June showing a 53% to 23% race.
Lamont, 72, a social progressive whose political brand has turned more on the fiscal discipline that has contributed to a string of budget surpluses, enjoys a favorability rating higher than those committed to voting for him.
In the latest Impact CT poll, his favorable/unfavorable split is a strong 63% to 20%. Elliott’s is 36% favorable and 10% unfavorable.
Only 59% of primary voters had heard of Elliott in May, compared to 80% now.
The Impact CT poll asks voters whom they favor, which produced the 48% to 27% lead for Lamont. Then respondents are read brief biographical statements about each candidate and then are asked again whom they favor.
“Ned Lamont has served as governor of Connecticut since 2019, after many years as a businessman and job creator. Governor Lamont says his track record of fiscal restraint, coupled with historic investments in childcare and education, are two of the things he is most proud of. If reelected, Lamont says he will focus on lowering costs for things like electricity and healthcare. Opponents of Ned Lamont say most of the progress that’s been made on his watch was because of the legislature, not him, and they say he is an out-of-touch billionaire who doesn’t understand working people’s needs, that he protects the wealthy, and that he doesn’t do enough to fight back against Donald Trump.”
“State Representative Josh Elliott is a Hamden small business owner who is serving his 5th term in the state House of Representatives. He’s also Deputy Speaker and chair of the legislature’s Tax Equity Caucus. For years, he’s stood up to the special interests that have made life less affordable and driven families out of our state. Now, he’s running to bring the new leadership we all deserve. If elected, Rep. Elliott would push to raise taxes on people making more than $1 million per year as part of an effort to reduce property taxes, and take on the electric utility companies that he says put profit over people. Opponents of Josh Elliott say he is all talk and no action, and that he’ll raise everyone’s taxes and state spending and send Connecticut back to the days of big budget deficits.”
The statements led to Lamont’s lead shrinking to 11%, 46% to 35%.
Lamont’s strongest base of support was the same as in May: Older voters and Black voters. Elliott leads with voters under 35. Elliott’s gains largely came across the board.
Affordability and healthcare were the two major concerns named by those polled.
One of Elliott’s new ads accuses Lamont of raising taxes on the middle class, a debatable claim.
Lamont did deliver a middle-class tax cut. In 2022 and 2023, the governor delivered one of the largest two-year reductions in state history through a combination of ongoing and one-time relief.
But that doesn’t mean Elliott’s claim that the governor deserves some blame for higher property taxes is without merit.
The Connecticut Conference of Municipalities has long argued state aid to cities and towns has lagged inflation for years, while other programs were fundamentally flawed from the start.
The Education Cost Sharing program, the chief operating grant for local school districts worth almost $2.5 billion this fiscal year, relies on basic “foundation level” funding for students that hasn’t been adjusted for inflation since 2013. Once that’s done, CCM says, communities have lost hundreds of millions of dollars.
CT Mirror reporter Keith M. Phaneuf contributed to this story.
