Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Fazio swung big Tuesday, unveiling an plan to cut income taxes that he insists would return $2,000 to $2,500 annually to middle-class families by 2031.

But Fazio’s plan is based partly on outdated spending and revenue trends, leaving it unprepared to maintain hundreds of millions of dollars in new investments in municipal aid, affordable childcare and social services.

The relief plan, which he pitched during a midday stop in downtown Stratford, also would end state-sponsored healthcare for undocumented adults and children, impose a controversial “managed care” system to cap Medicaid assistance, and levy fees on private universities with major endowments. It also hinges on Connecticut winning a tax battle in court with neighboring states.

“After eight years, this state deserves leadership that makes Connecticut affordable, and as governor I’ll reverse the high-cost, high-tax policies of Gov. [Ned] Lamont,” Fazio said.

The linchpin of that plan involves cutting the lowest four of Connecticut’s seven marginal income tax rates over the next four years. By the time these reductions take full effect in 2031, a family earning the median income in Connecticut would save $2,000, and those making the average income would benefit by $2,500.

To finance that relief, Fazio would cut annual spending by more than $1.2 billion and borrowing by another $500 million.

His plan would reduce Medicaid, state’s single-largest expense, by about $336 million annually by 2031. Besides cutting benefits for undocumented residents, it would assume big savings by curtailing fraud and would pay insurance companies to manage the program. The latter, known as a “managed care” model, has drawn strong opposition from the Democratic-controlled legislature.

Fazio, a state senator from Greenwich, says the state also can save big money by shifting more responsibility for delivering social services onto private nonprofit agencies, shrinking staffing funds for state agencies and cutting legislative “earmarks” — special appropriations within the budget for pet projects in legislators’ home districts.

“We will … reduce wasteful spending, find efficiencies in government, reduce the general growth rate of government spending in a way that creates affordability,” he added.

Does the Fazio plan rely on too much good luck?

But Stratford Town Council Chairman Anthony Alfriyie, a Democrat who responded to Fazio’s plan on behalf of Lamont’s campaign, said the plan “is based on a bunch of assumptions and maybes.” And given the unprecedented human services programs cuts ordered last year by Congress and President Donald Trump, Alfriyie added, “we can’t really make those type of guesstimates.”

Fazio’s plan assumes state government will be limiting annual spending growth to 2.5% and running operating surpluses ranging from $350 million to $900 million over the next four-year term. That’s not including a special savings program that will capture another $1 billion-plus annually outside of the formal budget, funds usually used to reduce pension debt or build state reserves.

But those estimates came from mid-November of last year and no longer reflect Connecticut’s fiscal reality.

According to the legislature’s nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis, the operating budget is on pace for deficits each of the next four years, ranging from $114 million to $232 million annually. And though those are modest shortfalls — representing less than 1% of the General Fund — the gap gets much larger considering Fazio’s plan is counting on healthy surpluses.

If nonpartisan analysts are right, Fazio might have to tap that special savings program to deliver the tax relief he seeks. But the Greenwich lawmaker has already criticized Lamont for reducing the savings to make investments in Medicaid, grants to cities and towns, and social services.

Further complicating matters, the legislature and governor last spring ordered several big new investments designed to improve affordability in Connecticut — investments that also aren’t reflected in the spending and revenue trends used to build the tax-cutting plan.

That’s an extra $280 million in municipal aid and about $60 million to assist nonprofit social service agencies.

Lawmakers and Lamont also have invested an average of $356 million annually over the past two years in an off-budget program to dramatically expand affordable childcare program slots statewide and is supposed to continue such payments. Fazio’s plan also doesn’t identify a way to maintain that program.

Fazio would gain $300 million annually for his tax-cutting plan by seizing income tax revenues that Connecticut residents working out-of-state currently pay to neighbors like New York and Massachusetts.

But if Connecticut were to repeal its current exemption — putting tens of thousands at risk of double-taxation — it would likely trigger a federal court battle that could create a fair compromise, Fazio and other Republican state lawmakers say.

“All of this is just based on a house of cards,” Alfriyie said, adding the childcare investment is “something that’s going to pay big dividends in the future and shouldn’t be imperiled.”

Fazio: Bold leadership is needed to solve CT’s unaffordability crisis

But Fazio countered that Connecticut is facing a major unaffordability crisis and bold leadership is needed.

His plan, if fully implemented, would deliver more than five times the relief Lamont delivered in a 2023 tax cut that was one of the largest in modern state history.

The GOP candidate also would add about $125 million to annual education aid by 2031 and reduce business taxes by about $100 million.

And while Fazio concedes the plan likely would need to be modified, at least somewhat, to secure legislative approval — particularly if Democrats maintain control of the state House and Senate — he added there’s no reason Connecticut’s next governor can’t deliver unprecedented relief.

“I can work with my colleagues. I anticipate there will be disagreements,” he said. “That’s where, I think, leadership comes into play. You need to show the public, including the legislature, the benefits to [helping] our constituents who are overtaxed, who deserve and need tax relief.”