President Obama has only a slim lead over Mitt Romney in a UConn/Hartford Courant national poll released early today, but the Democratic president is expected to win by twice as many voters as those who predict a GOP victory.

Is Obama, who was the beneficiary of an enthusiasm gap in 2008, benefiting from a confidence gap in 2012?

“That’s the X factor for Obama right now,” said Jennifer Necci Dineen, the poll’s director. “If Democrats can convince voters that Obama’s re-election is inevitable, Republicans who are less enthusiastic about Romney are more likely to stay home on Election Day.”

The random telephone poll of 1,186 voters from Sept. 11 to 18 found Obama leading, 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. But 52 percent predicted Obama will win, while only 27 percent expect a Romney victory.

Another interesting tidbit: Voters say they are unimpressed by the death of Osama bin Laden, at least as far as it might influence their vote for president.

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Mark PazniokasCapitol Bureau Chief

Mark is the Capitol Bureau Chief and a co-founder of CT Mirror. He is a frequent contributor to WNPR, a former state politics writer for The Hartford Courant and Journal Inquirer, and contributor for The New York Times.

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