Given the political uncertainty surrounding the next state budget, the leaders of the Appropriations Committee have the same answer for the many special interests collectively asking for hundreds of millions of dollars extra next fiscal year:

No.

But if you press Rep. Toni E. Walker, D-New Haven, and Sen. Cathy Osten, D-Sprague, that “no” gets upgraded slightly to: maybe a little more, but don’t count on it.

“Right now, we don’t have the opportunity to expand in any area,” Walker said, adding that her focus is to retain as much as possible of the preliminary $26 billion budget legislators and Gov. Ned Lamont adopted last June for the 2024-25 fiscal year. The debate over adjusting that plan begins next Wednesday when the regular 2024 legislative session opens.

“We have no money,” Osten added.

At first glance, those answers seem confusing. The preliminary budget was projected to close in June 2025 with about $750 million left over — and that was before analysts upgraded revenue projections by $59 million.

Sure, state agencies are struggling with $285 million in cost overruns this year — and some of those added expenses might crop up again in the next budget — but the potential black ink far exceeds the red.

The problem, though, is that the next budget already exceeds the spending cap — a fiscal guardrail that keeps budget growth in line with the growth in household income and inflation — by $30 million. And a second guardrail, which requires each annual budget to have a sizable built-in surplus — also could pose a problem.

Leaders of the legislature’s Democratic majority — House Speaker Matt Ritter and Senate President Pro Tem Martin M. Looney — both have said they want Republicans and Lamont to be flexible and allow Connecticut to spend an extra $200 million to $300 million to meet the most pressing needs.

But so far, there has been no agreement on that. And the Appropriations co-chairwomen refuse to count their chickens.

“That’s at the level of leadership,” Osten said of the prospect of getting any flexibility to send more. “I’m not even going to weigh in on that.”

“Those are what-ifs, and right now we’ve got to work with what’s in front of us,” Walker added.

Funding requests are plentiful; budget flexibility is not

What’s in front of them are roughly $600 million in spending requests across a wide spectrum of core services.

The Board of Regents for Higher Education, which oversees community colleges and regional state universities, is looking to trim staff to offset a $140 million deficit next fiscal year. Tuition and fees already will be up 11% next fall at community colleges, and 7% at universities, from two years earlier.

Nonprofit social services agencies, which estimated they lose $480 million annually due to inflation and stagnating state payments compared with those of a decade-and-a-half ago, recently asked lawmakers to close about 38% of that gap.

Walker and Osten both anticipate considerable push from rank-and-file lawmakers to increase the Medicaid rates Connecticut pays doctors who treat poor patients. The Department of Social Services is amid an extensive review of rates and is expected to provide an update this session, along with more data later in the year.

Similarly, nursing homes — one of the chief recipients of Medicaid dollars — have received about $150 million in funding increases over the past five years. But at the same time, legislatures and governors have canceled more than $220 million otherwise required by law to cover health care inflation. The overwhelming bulk of those funds was earmarked for nursing homes.

“That Connecticut’s skilled nursing facilities are, year-after-year and specifically during the period of the imposition of the fiscal guardrails, … losing ground against inflation, and extraordinary staffing and other cost increases is actually well-documented,” said Matthew Barrett, president and CEO of the Connecticut Association of Health Care Facilities.

Rank-and-file lawmakers also are pushing the committee to add more funding for child care services. And while Lamont unveiled his own plan to boost funding in that area, the legislature isn’t expected to embrace it.

The governor wants to double a $50 million increase for child care already included in the preliminary budget for next fiscal year. But he would draw at least part of the extra $50 million from funds lawmakers already reserved for magnet and charter schools.

Other programs expected to receive strong support for extra funding include federally qualified health centers, school-based health clinics, vocational-agriculture schools, and school lunch programs.

Further complicating matters, the required contributions to the pension funds for state employees and for teachers are $72 million above what was included in the preliminary budget for 2024-25 — a legal obligation lawmakers must fulfill. Given that, and the spending cap challenge, many programs likely will be cut rather than enhanced, unless the fiscal guardrails are adjusted.

Debate over fiscal guardrails expected to intensify

Those guardrails have become the center of a fierce ideological debate at the Capitol.

Those guardrails first were enacted in 2017 to force better savings habits and end the string of deficits and tax hikes that plagued state finances throughout much of the early and mid-2010s.

Connecticut has amassed most of its record-setting $3.3 billion rainy day fund since the 2017, while also using roughly $7.7 billion in surpluses to pay down pension debt.

The Lamont administration has been clear it isn’t interested in looking for legal options to circumvent the guardrails.

“We don’t want to go back to the bad old days,” said Lamont’s budget director, Office of Policy and Management Secretary Jeffrey Beckham.

The state pledged in a contract with its bondholders not to repeal the guardrails before mid-2028 — yet can modify them. But even if Lamont were amenable to that, the bond pledge states it would require a three-fifths vote in both chambers — something that would likely necessitate Republican support.

House Republicans flatly refused to consider that this week and called for an amendment to add two of the key savings programs to the state Constitution, while the Senate GOP applauded their House colleagues.

“This comes down to spending priorities,” said House Minority Leader Vincent J. Candelora, R-North Branford.

Looney and Ritter both have said they would consider simply leaving the preliminary $26 billion budget in place, if the only adjustments that might be made would be reductions.

Given those obstacles, Osten and Walker said, the only thing that can be done is try to prioritize core programs — education, health care, social services and economic development — and try to ensure fairness and consistency in funding.

“There are things that all have value in all of the parts of our state,” Walker added.