Gov. Ned Lamont returned from the Paris Air Show this week to confront a quandary largely of his own making: Would he sign an omnibus housing bill his administration negotiated? Or would he bow to unexpectedly virulent opposition from suburbs crucial to a potential reelection campaign?

Opposition to House Bill 5002, the most consequential housing bill to reach his desk in his seven years in office, exploded immediately after Lamont shared his present inclination to seek a third term in 2026, inextricably linking the fate of the bill to his own ambitions.

Lamont reiterated Friday he would like to see revisions when the General Assembly returns for an unrelated special session, expected before much of the housing law would take effect. But his immediate choice is whether to sign the bill with suggestions for change or to veto it and call for a do-over. 

His deadline to act on the bill is Tuesday.

In comments Friday before and after an appearance in New Haven celebrating the 100th anniversary of the Frank Pepe Pizzeria Napoletana by Wooster Square, Lamont declined to share his leanings or detail what more he needs to know before making the call.

“I’m just talking to a lot of people right now. The housing bill, to be really effective, towns have got to buy in. I want them to take the lead. Most of the towns have taken the lead. Some of them haven’t,” Lamont said. “Housing is absolutely crucial to the economic growth and opportunity in the state, so we’re going to get it right.”

HB 5002 is an expansive 41-section bill that attempts the address a critical housing shortage by requiring municipalities to set goals for affordable housing, prioritizing state aid to communities that build housing, and streamlining approval for so-called “middle housing,” defined as a building with two to nine units.

Under the bill, zoning regulations would have to allow middle housing in commercial zones as “of right,” which means approval without any discretionary zoning action other than a review to determine if a site plan conforms with applicable regulations and will not impact public health and safety.

Another provision would prohibit municipalities from rejecting a housing development solely due to a failure to conform to formulaic on-site parking regulations, rather than a specific impact on public safety.

CT169Strong, an advocacy group opposed to any intrusion into local planning and zoning prerogatives, put out an email blast an hour after the governor concluded a press conference on June 5, the day after the annual legislative session ended. Lamont had signaled an interest in reelection — and doubts about HB 5002.

They described the bill as heavy handed.

“Collaboration brings forth good workable policy, not unfunded mandates and extreme positions. We thank Gov. Lamont for being thoughtful in this process and we are happy to meet with him,” the group said. They provided the email addresses of Lamont and his chief of staff, Matt Brokman. He was the governor’s chief negotiator on the bill.

The group said prioritizing aid for communities producing housing would be punitive and described the so-called “fair share” goals as “quotas.”

A deluge of emails followed.

Lamont said he found the fair share goals to be “aggressive,” but calling them quotas “was fake news.” He was hoping to bring down the temperature before making a decision, but that seems unlikely.

“They’re screaming on both sides,” Lamont said Friday as he exited his black SUV  at the Pepe family’s storied pizzeria in a three-story brick building, a survivor of urban renewal and highway construction. “There’s not much middle ground. The story of American politics right now.”

Mayor Justin Elicker, a supporter of HB 5002 who had complained recently that Lamont’s fiscal conservatism was harming municipalities, was waiting to introduce him. Elicker’s only agenda Friday was pizza, not politics or policy.

“The governor and I don’t always agree on everything, but we agree on pretty much everything,” Elicker told the gathering. “And you can be darn sure that today we agree that New Haven has the best pizza in the country.”

Two days earlier, Elicker issued a statement praising HB 5002. “I’m hopeful the state legislature and the governor will be able to find common ground and a pathway to get this important legislation across the finish line and open doors to new housing in Connecticut.” 

On Friday, a coalition of eight pro-housing groups, including the Open Communities Alliance and United Way of Connecticut, shared a letter urging Lamont to sign a bill that they see as meeting specifications largely set by his administration.

“Signing this bill would be a major step forward on solving one of the state’s most pressing issues. It has been crafted specifically with many of your previously stated concerns in mind,” they wrote.

Pete Harrison, an advocate who was not a signatory to the letter, said he believes the governor is likely to sign the bill.

“I think the governor wants to get to a yes. He has certainly been involved in this process during the legislative session, even before the vote,” said Harrison, the Connecticut director of the tristate Regional Plan Association. “I think his instincts have been very good on recognizing how important the bill is.”

Republicans, who hold fewer than one-third of the seats in the General Assembly and have not won a gubernatorial contest in nearly two decades, have tried with little success to transforms concerns over home-rule, zoning and housing into a source of votes.

In 2022, the Republican gubernatorial nominee, Bob Stefanowski, promised Fairfield voters he would repeal and replace 8-30g, a 30-year-old law that gives developers leverage in communities where less than 10% of the housing stock is affordable. Lamont cruised to reelection, flipping 45 suburbs that Stefanowski had won in their first, much closer match in 2018.

Alexis Harrison of Fairfield, a founder of CT169Strong, failed to recapture the 132nd House District seat in 2024, using concerns about bills like 5002 as a platform. Rep. Jennifer Leeper, D-Fairfield, who had flipped what had been a GOP seat in 2020, beat Harrison, 58% to 42%.

But there are signs of nervousness in some of the Fairfield County districts now represented by Democrats, as was evidenced by the 87-64 House vote for the passage of the housing bill. 

Every Republican voted in opposition, joined by 18 of the 102 members of the House Democratic majority. Two thirds of the Democratic dissenters were from Fairfield County, among them Leeper.

“There is no harder issue, probably, in Fairfield County, than tackling housing,” Leeper said. “It is the No. 1 driver for the cost of living.”

Like Lamont, she said she had concerns about whether the fair share goals were realistic. Rep. Sarah Keitt, also a Democrat of Fairfield, also voted no. But Rep. Cristin McCarthy Vahey, the third Democrat representing the Bridgeport suburb, voted for the measure.

Four years ago, she successfully worked for passage as co-chair of the Planning and Development Committee for a fair-housing bill that, among other things, eased the approval process for accessory dwelling units in single-family zones.

“I experienced a lot of the same kinds of conversations that we’re experiencing now, and some of the things that we talked about then in that bill that were so controversial, including accessory dwelling units, are things that people are now talking about as real positives,” she said. “And I see this opportunity the same way, because this issue is the No. 1 crisis facing our state.”

Joe DeLong, the executive director of the Connecticut Conference of Municipalities, said many of his members were not opposed to the bill in totality but had reservations about certain provisions.

“We just think there’s a few provisions in this bill that weren’t completely thought out that could be modified in a way to make it more workable, and perhaps even get people more energy behind it, from the cities and towns, as opposed to animosity,” he said.

DeLong dismissed complaints that prioritizing state aid for communities building housing was punitive, but he is aware of concerns that language limiting the ability to require adequate parking for new housing was overly broad.

“There are towns where you’ll suffocate the businesses on town greens if all of the residents are taking up all of the parking spaces in that in those areas, and there’s nowhere for shoppers or anyone to come in and park,” DeLong said. “I don’t think those things were really thought about.”

 DeLong said it appears the governor is experiencing buyer’s remorse for giving his “blessing to the legislation before he realized exactly what was in it or how it was written.” But he praised Lamont for trying, if belatedly, to rally support for the substance of the bill, with revisions.

“He hasn’t really drawn a line in the sand with anybody on it. I think he’s trying to bring people together,” DeLong said. “I’ve been pretty hard on the governor over a lot of things lately, but wherever this thing ends up landing, I’m at least appreciative of his effort. You know that he’s trying to bring people together on it.”

House Majority Leader Jason Rojas, D-East Hartford, the legislature’s most prominent advocate of the bill, said that after meetings with the governor and his staff, he was uncertain of the governor’s intent.

“We’re conversing with the governor’s office,” he said. “We expect to come to an agreement certainly before Tuesday, and hopefully that will give him the comfort and the understanding that will allow him to sign the bill and knowing in the future that we’re going to come back to this and make some adjustments that are needed.”

Peter Harrison of the Regional Planning Association said a veto would be a mistake.

“I think a veto would be, I think, pretty bad politics, pretty bad policy. And it would signal Connecticut is still in the same rut,” he said. “And that’s going to signal a lot of bad things to businesses, home builders, young people, people that we want to come and do business in Connecticut.”

The governor said he shares the goals of the advocates.

“I know that we’re never going to get this state growing again with economic opportunity for everybody, never going to bring down the price of housing unless you get more housing,” Lamont said. “That’s workforce housing, affordable housing, supportive housing, lot of housing right here in New Haven, our downtown areas.

“I just got to figure out whether this bill is the right way to get it done.”