CT’s ‘groundhogs’ predictions are among the nation’s most accurate

At 6:47 a.m. today, Chuckles, Connecticut’s official groundhog, predicted an early spring this year after not seeing his shadow, according to Manchester Mayor Jay Moran, who speaks Groundhogese.

A crowd of over two dozen kids burst into applause and screams at the Lutz Children’s Museum following Chuckles’ prediction, but will they be disappointed? How accurate has Chuckles been in the past?

A review of climate and predicting data by The Connecticut Mirror shows that he’s been right 60% of the time — the fifth-most accurate out of 41 Groundhog Day predicting animals from across the nation.

“That doesn’t surprise me,” said Moran. “I have faith in Chuckles. Our guy knows Connecticut.”

State Rep. Jason Doucette, who represents Manchester in the 13th district, told the CT Mirror he didn’t have a doubt about Chuckles.

“He’s been preparing for this all year,” Doucette said. “He’s very serious about his prognostication.”

And Chuckles has numerous resources, according to Patricia Buxton, the executive director of the nonprofit museum.

“He checks with his groundhog network, which is key. And he also checks all of the models and works really hard.”

Since 2008, nine of the 15 predictions made by Connecticut animals have been correct (All predictions have been by Chuckles except for one in 2021, which was made by Phoebe the hedgehog, who was filling in that year).

Last year, Chuckles predicted an early spring, and the average temperatures for February and March were higher than the combined average temperatures of the 100 years before that. If either February or March had been lower than the 100-year average, it couldn't have been described as "early spring."

In comparison, Punxsutawney Phil, the country’s most famous groundhog, was left in the dust. Phil was right only 21% of the time, six out of 28 predictions. This year, Phil —like Chuckles — predicted an early spring.

But even more accurate than Chuckles is Beardsley Bart, a prairie dog who lives at the Beardsley Zoo in Bridgeport. At 78% accuracy, 11 out of 14, Bart has the highest accuracy of any groundhog-ish prognosticator in North America, but it should be noted that Bart has made fewer predictions than many of the others on the list.

At No. 36, with only 21.4% accuracy, Punxsutawney Phil's skill at predicting spring is worse than a number of taxidermized groundhogs, one armadillo, one statue and at least a couple of guys in groundhog suits.

The analysis is based on data from the groundhog-day.com, the self-proclaimed leading data source on North America’s predictors and their seasonal predictions. The predictions were compared to each state’s temperatures to see if they were correct, using a method similar to the analysis performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration when it analyzed Phil’s predictions a few years ago.

The CT Mirror analyzed NOAA data to capture the average monthly temperatures for February and March for every state and for every year since 1901. The values were compared to the combined average temperature of each year's previous 100 years. If a year did not have temperature for the 100 years before it, that year's predictions were not included in the analysis. This is why, although Phil had predictions from the early 1900s, those predictions were not analyzed since there was no temperature data available for 100 years before that. This kept every year's analysis comparable. Given varying weather over the decades, the rolling 100-year averages were more appropriate than using fixed 100-year averages for every year. The methodologies to calculate Groundhog Day accuracy vary by organization.